Landry+Jones

SaturdayEdge.com’s Best Bet for Week Fourteen

Oklahoma – TCU under 60 (playable to 58)

One of the Big 12’s top offenses faces the league’s best defense when Oklahoma travels to Fort Worth to take on the TCU Horned Frogs. OU games have scored 99 points in each of the last two weeks and have gone "over" in 7 straight conference games. Meanwhile TCU’s last 3 games have all gone under as the Horned Frogs have held their last 9 opponents below their season avg in yards per game, they’ve held 8 of 10 FBS opponents below their season avg for points per game and they’ve held 7 of 10 opponents below their season avg in yards per play.

So with 7 of 10 Oklahoma games going over the number and 6 of 10 TCU games going under the number, it seems as though there is no edge here as a prolific offensive team faces a solid defensive team. This is where our totals expert Trentmoney uses his "comparative" method to see if he can gain an edge on the line.

He compares Oklahoma to Texas and has Texas as the "higher score" team, due to the fact that while OU is statistically slightly better on offense, Texas is statistically much worse on defense. Hence, games involving Texas should produce more points than games involving Oklahoma, and the lines makers agreed, as the chart below shows the totals of common opponents since Oklahoma and Texas faced each other:

  OU Texas
Baylor 74 79
Kansas 55 59
Iowa St 50 53
TCU 60 55

With each opponent the Texas total was higher than the Oklahoma total by at least a FG, which would lead us to believe that the TCU total should be at least a FG less vs. OU than vs Texas. So this total, based on a comparison to past totals, should be around 52. Not only is it not less than the Texas/TCU total, it's more than a FG higher. Could this be an overreaction to the name team (Oklahoma) and the fact that their last 2 games have produced almost 200 points? Oklahoma's totals were in the 50s for all of their B12 games until they faced the "high flyers" the last 3 weeks in Baylor, WV, and Oklahoma State, where they were lined in the 70s. This Oklahoma – TCU total should be closer to the low/mid 50s as they were vs the rest of the conference, and as it should be based on the "comparative" lines vs Texas.

Oklahoma 31 TCU 24

 

Make sure to check out The Saturday Edge website and follow them on Twitter @SaturdayEdge. It's a great site where college football handicapping enthusiasts can exchange useful betting strategies, tips, ideas and information. They have great football analysis and are also a great place to go if you want to read up on betting or get some advice. You can also sign up for their newsletter at their site. So far they have hit on their "best bet" predictions for Oregon State/Wisconsin, Nebraska/Southern Miss, Colorado St/Utah St, Colorado/UCLA, Michigan/Purdue, Notre Dame/Pitt and Ohio St/Wisconsin.

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