Coming on the heels of a 6-0 week (and 5-1 against the spread) I dropped down to 5-2 straight up and only went 2-5 picking against the spread last week. You would have been better served playing cheekybingo.com last week than going with my picks. Overall for the year, that brings me to 63-14 straight up and 35-34 against the spread.
Line: Florida by 16
I don’t see this game ending other way than with a Florida victory. Florida will be mad that they lost their chance against Georgia last week and know that they have to win out to have any hope of going to the SEC Championship Game. The question is, how much will they win by? My guess is that they have trouble topping a 16 point spread with their one dimensional offense. So far in SEC games, they’ve won three games by more than 16 so the odds are with them coming in under the point spread especially with them only averaging 27 points per game.
Florida 31 Missouri 17
Line: Vandy by 7.5
This game pits the 12th and 13th highest scoring offenses in the SEC so don’t expect fireworks. Kentucky has lost seven straight games with five of those coming by more than eight points. Take Vandy, take the points.
Vandy 27 Kentucky 17
Line: A&M by 7
This is the battle for third place in the SEC West, which basically means the winner could end up as a top ten team by the end of the year. Up until last week, the Bulldogs were riding high but they hadn’t played anybody. After running into a buzzsaw called Alabama, this week we will finally get to see exactly how good Mississippi State can be. A&M has been a good bet all year so I would stick with them if I was you.
Texas A&M 35 Mississippi State 24
Troy (4-4, 3-3) at Tennessee (3-5, 0-5), Noon, ESPN3
Line: Tennessee by 18.5
Tennessee is just 3-5 this season but they are 3-0 outside of the SEC and winning by an average of 24 points. Take the Vols as they will continue to stay undefeated in unimportant games.
Tennessee 45 Troy 17
Tulsa (7-1, 5-0) at Arkansas (3-5, 2-3), 12:21 PM, SEC Network
Line: Arkansas by 7
Tulsa has been pretty good this year but they’ve done it against not so good opponents. Tulsa’s seven wins have come against opponents with a winning percentage of just 31% and they’ve only beaten one opponent that has a winning record (Fresno State by one point). I feel like Arkansas kills me every week on my picks but I’m giving them one more chance.
Arkansas 35 Tulsa 24
New Mexico State (1-7, 0-4) at Auburn (1-7, 0-6), 12:30 PM, ESPN3
Line: Auburn by 22.5
Hey look, it’s a game that Auburn can actually win! But they won’t win it by 22.5.
Auburn 31 New Mexico State 21
Line: Georgia by 14
I’m just 1-3 in picking against the spread in my last four games involving Georgia. My feeling in this game is that Georgia will be coming down off of a fantastic road win against Florida and will not play with as much emotion. Ole Miss is a much improved team and I see them keeping this game close with Georgia holding them off in the fourth quarter. But since my Georgia picks have been off, I’m going against my thought process and taking Georgia and the points.
Georgia 38 Ole Miss 20
Line: Bama by 10
Everything in this game, except the fact that the game is being played at night at LSU, points to a victory for Alabama. Alabama is allowing an SEC best eight points per game and gave up just 7 last week to an undefeated Mississippi State squad. In fact, Bama hasn’t given up more than 14 points yet this season. They haven’t given up more than 14 points and they are averaging over 40. If you look at this from a bettors perspective, Bama has been, on average, six points better than the spread so far this season and LSU has been six points worse. Go with the Tide.
Alabama 27 LSU 16